Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12897

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.57, p 0.108). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12896, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12897
    28 Oct 2026, 09:52 UTC

    EBF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEBF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e31199811e1fa40

    discovery+0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.466 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.57, p 0.108)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    13e19156362dcb4a47bc3e05…
    follows 21cb5a6b776d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12897: EBF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EBF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.