Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12892

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.473). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12891, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12892
    28 Oct 2026, 09:44 UTC

    HEPHL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHEPHL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1050aae96a2844cf

    discovery+0.28 p=0.473 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.473)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    925bf37e74ec76502cb536a1…
    follows f001b55e93d9…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12892: HEPHL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.15, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HEPHL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.