Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12887

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.760). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12886, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12887
    28 Oct 2026, 09:38 UTC

    MILR1

    microglia, braak

    predictionMILR1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd0807dc08c72069d

    discovery+0.12 p=0.760 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.760)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    073f8c38d9e15d82af3014e6…
    follows 5d86a97d02ec…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12887: MILR1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.19, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MILR1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.