Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12883

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.145). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12882, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12883
    28 Oct 2026, 09:33 UTC

    AMH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAMH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered93002993e3078230

    discovery-0.53 p=0.145 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.770 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.145)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6c259a72d6ae06605aa61570…
    follows 1c898b9c8d39…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12883: AMH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AMH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.