Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12860

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12859, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12860
    28 Oct 2026, 09:05 UTC

    SLC2A14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC2A14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc44eab37fde6dc9f

    discovery-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e88e54aff8e1d52dca55661f…
    follows 022d59534d73…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12860: SLC2A14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.20, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC2A14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.