Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12858

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12857, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12858
    28 Oct 2026, 09:02 UTC

    IL5RA

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIL5RA in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede42db0efa9b44bdd

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5822310281cb0174a254f07c…
    follows d36e58b470f5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12858: IL5RA in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.13, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IL5RA in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.