Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12856

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12855, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12856
    28 Oct 2026, 08:59 UTC

    ADCY7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADCY7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8b354cc3238df8a8

    discovery-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.65, p 0.058)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aac43cbca0f51ce1eebfc67b…
    follows b41f2ec754c5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12856: ADCY7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.03. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADCY7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.