Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12853

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.514). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12852, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12853
    28 Oct 2026, 08:56 UTC

    UBE2S

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2S in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf56c8729a227a797

    discovery-0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.514)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    028c5bc24583026d363f4889…
    follows 92b190ed1611…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12853: UBE2S in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2S in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.