Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12846

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12845, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12846
    28 Oct 2026, 08:45 UTC

    INPP5J

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionINPP5J in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc9bc2d89af7dece5

    discovery-0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6a6a470a31e9ae8f29526998…
    follows 00da6fdec8c5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12846: INPP5J in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for INPP5J in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.