Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12835

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12834, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12835
    28 Oct 2026, 08:32 UTC

    GPR39

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPR39 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f482f5c9a5933a8

    discovery+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6c0a1b9fb55d331d4d55be9f…
    follows 3a085ee92848…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12835: GPR39 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.05, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPR39 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.