Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12833

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12832, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12833
    28 Oct 2026, 08:29 UTC

    ARF4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARF4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede16862649692582a

    discovery+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    50330b4caab641d14ca8bfee…
    follows 8fe09810e6ac…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12833: ARF4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARF4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.