Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12821

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12820, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12821
    28 Oct 2026, 08:12 UTC

    COL19A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOL19A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5ea87ca18e44b239

    discovery+0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.738 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    940bdf435732d05a0714aa93…
    follows 59d9ef47e7da…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12821: COL19A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.53, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.114, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL19A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.