Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12819

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12818, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12819
    28 Oct 2026, 08:10 UTC

    NCR2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNCR2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7eb39c3149c46ad3

    discovery+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    971966723a6ef8b5343962bf…
    follows 07463b2cd657…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12819: NCR2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NCR2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.