Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12805

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12804, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12805
    28 Oct 2026, 07:50 UTC

    BLOC1S3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBLOC1S3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered92743601de8182b3

    discovery-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.554 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6116c013d0ea415a0ccd4f84…
    follows 79d87dfd1eb9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12805: BLOC1S3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BLOC1S3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.