Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0128

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.919). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 127, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0128
    16 Oct 2026, 17:15 UTC

    HTR2C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHTR2C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22a69ee0970b5716

    discovery-0.02 p=0.919 n=42

    replication-0.35 p=0.024 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.919)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0c3216a911169ebdbf97f0ea…
    follows 89075b94777e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0128: HTR2C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.097, n 84), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.03. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.17 (p 0.112, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.367, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.074, n 75). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HTR2C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.