Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12799

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12798, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12799
    28 Oct 2026, 07:42 UTC

    LIPF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLIPF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredadd3c6b0ceae68dd

    discovery-0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication+0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    726b702f0c62f5c91d6bc6e6…
    follows 7d63c4c4869c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12799: LIPF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LIPF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.