Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12781

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.565). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12780, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12781
    28 Oct 2026, 07:14 UTC

    CERS4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCERS4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered27013b1605bbb82a

    discovery-0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.565)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    54825ad4f6b92db4c8d1454a…
    follows 10fa5ac022fd…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12781: CERS4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.06. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.52 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CERS4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.