Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12771

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.436). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12770, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12771
    28 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC

    APBB2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionAPBB2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9acca659484cb721

    discovery+0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.436)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    10cf29d04605328948d6b9be…
    follows e8dc68071db3…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12771: APBB2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.12, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APBB2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.