Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12769

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12768, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12769
    28 Oct 2026, 06:57 UTC

    ZNF219

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF219 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaa93f273c968cdef

    discovery-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de2dad83012ae038b3967c0b…
    follows fd88ffc5940d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12769: ZNF219 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF219 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.