Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12767

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12766, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12767
    28 Oct 2026, 06:54 UTC

    OSBPL1A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionOSBPL1A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd496badd8aaa6afb

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b47c73d0d44cc540c091072…
    follows e870028009c0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12767: OSBPL1A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.06, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OSBPL1A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.