Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12765

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.735). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12764, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12765
    28 Oct 2026, 06:52 UTC

    XYLT1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionXYLT1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbec5c0e363293b15

    discovery-0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.735)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    446493cd0b37ec7bbe5f0022…
    follows 2811224d240a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12765: XYLT1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.03, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for XYLT1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.