Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12750

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.355). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12749, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12750
    28 Oct 2026, 06:32 UTC

    YWHAE

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionYWHAE in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd38d606b479fc18e

    discovery+0.35 p=0.355 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.442 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.355)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8291c2bb4f46af11e5944347…
    follows 27670d7df3f5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12750: YWHAE in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for YWHAE in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.