Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12748

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.174). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12747, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12748
    28 Oct 2026, 06:29 UTC

    NSG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNSG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered155969f2b7f7f3f8

    discovery-0.50 p=0.174 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.174)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a5c251275ce60109fe90455c…
    follows b4cb3c61136c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12748: NSG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NSG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.