Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12745

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12744, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12745
    28 Oct 2026, 06:24 UTC

    ASPHD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionASPHD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddc29b07e07e28fda

    discovery-0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.925 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b31ce08cadfcafff029c0c56…
    follows 945bea83eacb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12745: ASPHD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.14, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ASPHD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.