Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12734

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12733, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12734
    28 Oct 2026, 06:12 UTC

    SLC25A18

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC25A18 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered47825d0c99c2211c

    discovery-0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8173264c420da19e019db69b…
    follows 6630f4a1ae1f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12734: SLC25A18 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.022, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC25A18 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.