Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12730

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.219). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12729, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12730
    28 Oct 2026, 06:07 UTC

    TSPAN14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTSPAN14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaff00b83692a2586

    discovery-0.45 p=0.219 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.219)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9f3cd1e53518d91be2ec1c87…
    follows c7699933c012…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12730: TSPAN14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TSPAN14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.