Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1273

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1272, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1273
    17 Oct 2026, 18:53 UTC

    GABRA6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGABRA6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a9a10b5f08ddd57

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2e0fd2e0055433fed484f076…
    follows ce7738151ae2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1273: GABRA6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18), 95% CI +0.07 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.70, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GABRA6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.