Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12718

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12717, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12718
    28 Oct 2026, 05:50 UTC

    CFLAR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCFLAR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda0f32636e7c2caaf

    discovery-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    697f2dadd271f8973c9a60ec…
    follows e038bc74c29a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12718: CFLAR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18), 95% CI -0.71 to +0.12. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CFLAR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.