Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12714

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.514). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12713, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12714
    28 Oct 2026, 05:45 UTC

    DLST

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDLST in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd77828310d9b5516

    discovery-0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.514)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    241e8ecfcb7f61c06897cc48…
    follows b6b63bb1dd18…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12714: DLST in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DLST in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.