Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12712

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.121). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12711, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12712
    28 Oct 2026, 05:42 UTC

    NKX6-1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNKX6-1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered70b104643450f1af

    discovery-0.55 p=0.121 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.121)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    40751eaebbb5444aee3fc31c…
    follows 707d339f2d33…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12712: NKX6-1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NKX6-1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.