Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12706

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12705, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12706
    28 Oct 2026, 05:34 UTC

    SYN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSYN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef8c574d1c0b50fe

    discovery+0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication+0.67 p=0.049 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bf0402091a5d01d10b342969…
    follows 75676633d279…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12706: SYN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.35 to +0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SYN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.