Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12703

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.207). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12702, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12703
    28 Oct 2026, 05:28 UTC

    SEC23A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSEC23A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered56789ce700d5f14c

    discovery+0.47 p=0.207 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.350 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.207)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    367595ccbc5626bbf9decf69…
    follows 3a39bc987d26…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12703: SEC23A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18), 95% CI -0.06 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.35 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SEC23A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.