Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1270

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.825). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1269, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1270
    17 Oct 2026, 18:51 UTC

    GABRA2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionGABRA2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredffc991988177528e

    discovery+0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.825)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    82a880abfbba13c40e314571…
    follows 40d698780c51…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1270: GABRA2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.19, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GABRA2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.