Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12695

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.66, p 0.054). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12694, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12695
    28 Oct 2026, 05:17 UTC

    PSMD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb5824ee69b3b4483

    discovery+0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.66, p 0.054)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    72451c13fabf5a51c7df4c00…
    follows 693eeda9f34d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12695: PSMD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.