Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12691

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12690, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12691
    28 Oct 2026, 05:11 UTC

    COL4A2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOL4A2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf38f2d4f1ca846e3

    discovery-0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.260 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d5a0474157757791cda82d7b…
    follows 745ce69d0abb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12691: COL4A2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.207, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COL4A2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.