Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12689

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.172). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12688, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12689
    28 Oct 2026, 05:09 UTC

    PSMC3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMC3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredeb59f748a6f1c83e

    discovery+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.172)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    784474a991c091d1577a52bb…
    follows 157373da1b22…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12689: PSMC3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMC3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.