Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12664

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12663, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12664
    28 Oct 2026, 04:30 UTC

    KDSR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKDSR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf108adca20bc0775

    discovery+0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.591)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4573a676fecd28de0be9a63f…
    follows 17cd09d00ca6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12664: KDSR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18), 95% CI -0.15 to +0.70. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KDSR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.