Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12662

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.888). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12661, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12662
    28 Oct 2026, 04:27 UTC

    VSIG2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionVSIG2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6ed7488090f2ade9

    discovery-0.06 p=0.888 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.888)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b920fab341ac344a0a1b6f9e…
    follows 7d5ba1126a8c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12662: VSIG2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VSIG2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.