Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12653

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12652, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12653
    28 Oct 2026, 04:16 UTC

    AK5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionAK5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfd798f49aa0d25f2

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.457 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8b0ebc21b9b68f5b7bd751e4…
    follows 24060bc01c2b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12653: AK5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.23, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AK5 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.