Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12651

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.785). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12650, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12651
    28 Oct 2026, 04:13 UTC

    A2ML1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionA2ML1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9237109ffab8ecab

    discovery-0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.785)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    51fb91a36dfc9ce4e4dee3cc…
    follows 30a26540db8e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12651: A2ML1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.16, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for A2ML1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.