Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12647

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.892). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12646, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12647
    28 Oct 2026, 04:07 UTC

    NUSAP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUSAP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2be7858c27ae6b0c

    discovery+0.05 p=0.892 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.05, p 0.892)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a8f3c51d3391f9d84d6f3554…
    follows 4d57b1fa514e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12647: NUSAP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUSAP1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.