Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12645

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.832). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12644, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12645
    28 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC

    EMG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEMG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered358314a587d444bf

    discovery-0.08 p=0.832 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.832)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ddcf0aacea1895e26e8a6916…
    follows c52e65d59159…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12645: EMG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.07, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EMG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.