Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12643

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.105). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12642, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12643
    28 Oct 2026, 04:02 UTC

    POLR2E

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPOLR2E in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered07e6b71b7f3c86d3

    discovery+0.58 p=0.105 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.105)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dfcf7e49e6290583584c7471…
    follows 0d8ca799804a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12643: POLR2E in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.12, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for POLR2E in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.