Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12641

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12640, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12641
    28 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC

    SEMA3G

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSEMA3G in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4c1e5b8a3f9dc823

    discovery-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.344 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f30d7c91f8f36c1a7522ff80…
    follows 29ff0d34b70a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12641: SEMA3G in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.29. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SEMA3G in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.