Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12634

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.857). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12633, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12634
    28 Oct 2026, 03:48 UTC

    MZF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMZF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredebc8d39bc13a54ea

    discovery+0.07 p=0.857 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.857)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f0afad991da9348a7f89928d…
    follows 97f610668562…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12634: MZF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.22 to +0.05, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MZF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.