Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12628

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12627, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12628
    28 Oct 2026, 03:40 UTC

    UQCR10

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUQCR10 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered81a5197c5561ceac

    discovery-0.23 p=0.555 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.555)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f0a3d7c2f0a398e011ba7421…
    follows a9f50006e59d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12628: UQCR10 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.17, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UQCR10 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.