Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12623

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.733). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12622, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12623
    28 Oct 2026, 03:34 UTC

    PPM1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPM1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3d6843dce20be1bc

    discovery+0.13 p=0.733 n=9

    replication+0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.733)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    30d1410b46266550a1770ae0…
    follows 77e93424304c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12623: PPM1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPM1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.