Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12609

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12608, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12609
    28 Oct 2026, 03:15 UTC

    TNFSF8

    microglia, braak

    predictionTNFSF8 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered868a4fbb9b7c2803

    discovery+0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.088 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.947)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a1dcad57ed4a4f225e18d8bb…
    follows bf18b316a2be…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12609: TNFSF8 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNFSF8 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.