Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12581

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.064). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12580, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12581
    28 Oct 2026, 02:37 UTC

    CHFR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHFR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1206a17fb9811cd5

    discovery-0.64 p=0.064 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.796 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.064)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8c149c601c8c55e02579a66d…
    follows b2b245443dd5…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12581: CHFR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.53 (p 0.022, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHFR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.