Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12531

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.277). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12530, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12531
    28 Oct 2026, 02:14 UTC

    LRRC8C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRRC8C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd7350a666e1ed606

    discovery+0.41 p=0.277 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.277)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aba5048448df6fba14f49fc1…
    follows a05bbb80a23a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12531: LRRC8C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.13 (p 0.615, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRRC8C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.